11% additional lift in promotion effectiveness (volume impact)

• 18% decrease in promotion costs (decommissioning failed experiments)

• $300 million estimated overall annual impact


A leading beverage and brewing company, catering to customers across the globe, wanted to understand the efficacy of its promotions. The company primarily used intuition in planning to optimize promotional mix and spend and wanted to move to insight-driven decision-making to optimize the promotional mix, economize spending and maximize returns.


TheMathCompany interpreted and bucketed historical promotions attributes, measured multiple KPIs, and developed insights on effective ways to optimize promotional mix and spend. 


Attributes such as price effect, quantity effect, merchandise effect, mixed effect, channel mix, placement mix, messaging, time period, discount bucket etc., were used to isolate overlap of type and timeline of promotions. Contribution methodologies (UCM, market mix modeling, regression etc.) were codified to determine attribute impact.

Market mix modeling was built to determine short-term and long-term marketing impact, and brand impact isolation using hierarchical multi-stage UCM model.

Latency was reduced by tapping into insights on campaigns in real-time as opposed to quarterly or half-yearly insights.  

Promotions were measured on multiple KPIs such as volume impact, marginal contribution, new launch lift, shopper reach, share efficiency, seasonal lift etc. to allow prioritization and alignment with product strategy.  

Econometric modelling was used for portfolio optimization through a holistic view of risk vs. return of investing in multiple countries (MCMC techniques).  

Need-based customer analysis was conducted using state-space modelling to predict propensity and drivers for progressing in the states value chain. 

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